There is one worry…

Hurricane Eta Forecast Cone, Fri Nov 6, 2020

There are some risks to scheduling that last trip of the season in Alaska, then doing a reposition to Miami that ends the second weekend of November. The biggest risk IMO is the one shown above, a hurricane.

Since I’m a storm chaser, I’m used to making these sorts of risk calculations. First-off, if this sailing were happening now, Hurricane Eta would not be a concern (this weekend), as we would be well south of it in Costa Rica. Given the really odd forecast track on this hurricane and the longer-term models, if we were sailing now I would still have some concern about delays getting into Miami.

Hurricanes are usually done by now. Oh, it’s 2020…

Yes, you can have your very own 2020 Dumpster Fire Candle! (but I digress)

Hurricane season officially ends November 30th. In the last 100 years, this is what the frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms looks like for the Atlantic/Caribbean. The Pacific season is still officially in progress as we make our way down the West Coast and Mexican Rivera. Again, the concern is less at the time we’ll be sailing than in earlier months.

One Other Weather Risk — Cold in Alaska

This one is something often bandied about by people discouraging late-season Alaska journeys. Yes, the weather patterns tend colder and the days get much shorter. As an example, on October 21, 2020 Ketchikan saw a high of 45 and a low of 37. It was a little cooler than average:

Ketchikan Average Temperatures, Typical Range, and Sunrise/Sunset
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Night is somewhat longer than day, with sunrise Oct 22, 2022 expected at 7:25am and sunset at 5:36pm. Our port time is currently scheduled for 7:00am to 1:15pm.

Image credit:

So while temperatures will likely be brisk in Ketchikan that day, they will be pretty chilly for a walk around the promenade or other outdoor activities while the ship is underway. But this is possible any time in Alaska, and well within the range of clothing we have packed for such a trip before. At this point I don’t plan any excursions in Ketchikan anyway.

When you consider this is the ONLY time in 2022 that connecting a repo trip with an Alaska trip does not require getting off the ship in Canada, I’ll take the risk. I really don’t worry much about the weather at this time.

710 days until embarkation!

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